It’s June 7th 2009 and the convention is tomorrow at last. I’m so sick of all the half-thought out conjecture online I can’t wait for it finally stop and the lower end macbook launched last week has the rumor mill grinding out something a bit fiercer than normal. Every single event this happens and now I am no longer sitting on the sidelines (technically speaking at least) so I might as well devote one post to it to see how right or wrong I can be. To cover the spread I will write about what three distinct scenarios could involve from my standpoint; Good-Better-Best. I accept the risk of being wrong but my approach allows me ample room to be somewhat correct, so humor me while I explore a few directions of a company that commands a degree of interest in products without a massive media blitz like none other, starting with Good.
The ‘Good’ Scenario–maintain the course, it’s making us billions worldwide
It pretty much goes without saying that they will be releasing a new model this week. Hints in the codebase that elude to items that have always seemed somewhat inevitable have popped up in recent months: qwerty format keypad outside of Safari (bout time), MMS support (identified in the original 3G release as an issue even for fanboys), and Video Recording (assume limited editing on the fly). Other given factors include that following through on GeoTagging, direct posting to YouTube of content and an improved digital camera, all of which would keep them at the same pace of the rest of the market. Throw in there the ’shake to shuffle’ use of the accelerometer/magnetometer for good measure and a ’softouch’ rear housing finish just because they are low hanging fruit.

Seeing convincing ‘leaked’ photos from prototype builds via the ODM strongly indicate these items. Overall assume that they simply maintain their current pricing strategy ($199/299) and double their on board memory/increase processor speed. Physically, other than the addition of a larger lens for the camera I would say it’s a good bet they continue with the current gently tapered form factor and overall proportions.
The other ‘one more thing’ here is most likely a tablet netbook. Even in this scenario I think there is room for a ‘high tier netbook.’ Oxymoron? Possibly, but regardless the market is showing viability in large quantities and if anyone can deliver on that it’s Apple. Lets be honest here, the iphone is a small computer that takes calls to begin with so all they need to do is carefully stretch the proportions of the iphone a bit to increase screen size and you are there no sweat, as long as it doesn’t look like the image below that is.

Plus: No new software necessary, No keyboard/mouse needed with Bluetooth, No need to build a stand because that is what Griffin and Belkin and a half dozen other manufacturers are for anyways. Price point would definitely come in a bit high for this segment but has to be at least $200-300.00 below the lowest macbook to avoid cannibalizing their low end there so you can see the importance on being careful in this space. Based on this I predict hitting $700 on the dot, possibly with a dual offering at $600.oo but then you eat away at the mac mini….in a way.
You can just hear the portfolio planners arguing and throwing dry erase markers at one another over this one…which brings us to the next scenario: Better.
The ‘Better’ Scenario–shake things up a bit, it’s made billions worldwide + we are pretty sure we can make more
This requires a bit of imagination, but hey isn’t that what blogs are for? To make it easy lets take everything from the previous scenario and add in a few things. For starters lets throw in the fact that they could always keep a $99 priced iphone on the market simply by keeping their current $199 phone in the mix and freshen it up with a color spin or two, but that isn’t really an Apple strategy–it’s the stock approach to selling cell phones. You can’t argue with the degree of market penetration and increased usage with this but it could dilute the perception of status that these still carry with them.

This would invariably attract more customers to AT&T so it works well for them. Thinking of carrier integration with regards to a ‘win-win’ cohesive strategy can result in something that AT&T has been having wet dreams about for years. Behold: The ever elusive Video Call. Who better to deliver this than Apple, regardless of network constraints/system rendering lags? Of course this may add another entire antenna to the mix (plus front-facing camera) which is why this is would require a third media-capture centric physical offering.
What happens next is that you would also have to offer up a premium camera to justify the additional expense of the phone, which you could bump up to $399. You throw some aluminum core body (with added part breaks for three antennas), bigger lens/more mega-pixels, add some advanced editing features that the base models don’t have and you are in business. Mind you, this would be a high end play in a down market but once again you are dealing with a company that has a rich heritage of flying in the face of conventional wisdom.

Here too I would say there will be a touchscreen tablet with the same pricing structure. But lets say they decide to be the first to do something downright righteous; add a decent mic feed in the right location, add a speaker proportioned similarly to the overall size of the iphone’s, throw a SIM card slot into this puppy, pack an antenna or two in there and (Emril Lagasse style) BAM now you have a computer that takes/makes calls. Let’s face it–this is going to happen some day soon, down or up economy there are plenty of early adopters would eat this shit up. And love every minute of it because this would transparently illustrate an aggressive play and thus wasn’t part of the ‘Good’ strategy. So what’s left?
The ‘Best’ Scenario–Steve says ‘bet it all on Red,’ and since we are in the black why not…we don’t need a bailout!
I could take this opportunity to pander a bit and make outrageous claims like Steve Jobs invented the question mark but it’s not my style. So, what could the riskiest of all strategies produce here? Start by removing the netbook tablet of the Better scenario in this case. With this last theory I rely on a targeted approach to knocking off a competitor in one of the phone spaces they know they can win if they position themselves just right.Just maybe they can go after two at once (which I believe they can) : Productivity and the Low Tier, two opposite ends of the spectrum.
Productivity
Why? Because uhm…..fuck RIM and their latest lame full touchscreen media offering that didn’t really ’sell’ anyone that they weren’t doing what every other manufacturer was and has been for a while now: cranking out weak knee jerk responses to the iphone. This includes Palm, although the Pre has potential–way to jack it by partnering up with Sprint by the way, real original with the ‘Carrier Exclusive’ model (we were all thinking it, geniuses). Multi-tasking won’t be a differentiating point for long with a tiny keypad that won’t convert true business users.
But I digress. Keep the mid-Tier $199/299 improved camera model out of this because they aren’t going to stray from those core product offerings. Take that $399 price point with it’s aluminum body and maybe upgrade it to Admantium or some shit. It would probably take little more than a color/detailing spin to make things effective if you platform it correctly, which once again doesn’t take much to do. Lets preserve the high end extra antenna of the $399 model, and…….add a physical qwerty keypad underneath that touchscreen.

If you want to learn a lesson on how to implement low profile keyboards just take a look at the barely 2 mm that Apple keyboards currently have anyways. If anyone can do this thin with decent reliability it would be Jonathan Ive and the killer ME team that rides in the design studio’s Sidecar. Implementation doesn’t matter all that much; conventional slider, side slider, hinged, etc. Again it really doesn’t matter (fanboys will heart it either way) but having physical keys is just what the doctor ordered to make a strong play in this arena. Plus you keep the touch paradigm riding on the top screen because it doesn’t cost you anything if you borrow from your other product line the right way. use cases can get kludgey (hello Samsung touchscreens and the G1) but management of similar items wasn’t an issue with any of the SW releases since the original iphone 3G launched.

yawn.this is like lipstick on...swine flu
Overall I think this space is weak sauce digitally since Android is already moving in on this turf, effectively squeezing the mediocrity that has been, is, and always will be Windows Mobile out of the game. Who else is here then, Nokia? Please! I’m starting to think their iron grip on #1 cell manufacturer has been steadily eroding, slowly but surely although they play smart in the super-low tier space better than anyone. Perhaps even the ODMs that sell straight to market there, but that remains to be seen. Sorry for the side note but that brings me to my next point.
Low Tier
Oh, the blasphemy! Although if you really think about it, it’s not. The shuffle is on it’s Third Generation and was a bit of a gamble at the time the original was released if I remember correctly. Let me be a bit more specific with this one as well, I mean to say that Apple can attack the sub $99 price point if they do so by segmenting what the core competencies of what this phone actually does.
To start you pretty much have to live without a touch screen unless the carrier steps up big time. Which any of the bigger players could if they want it bad enough. If you cut out watching movies and taking pictures on a phone (which I still think half of users don’t do) I think it’s not an issue. Maybe you keep music onboard but you make it less immersive. Take the ’shuffle’ model and integrate it here sans accelerometer. Would it kill anyone to hit a button to advance another song? Historically speaking this hasn’t been an issue, and since Apple seems to be migrating to in-line wired controls this becomes infinitely more feasible.

So what stays on the phone? The core of making/taking calls, contact library (made easier with dedicated synch software), maybe a few 8-bit games and that’s pretty much it. Who better to return the phone to what it started out as being before massive feature creep hit all manufacturers due to what the Carriers, not necessarily the majority of end users were looking for than those known for keeping things simple? Didn’t mean to ask rhetorical questions there, but you can bet it’s not LG.
You keep the basics of the existing UI, maybe remove/tailor a few items for the platform from a digital standpoint but the question of hardware remains. I think this would arrive in a candy bar form factor with a basic physical bell keypad and circle navigation cluster with no more than two soft keys below the screen. Sure, it’s not just that easy to say ‘give the edges a radius or gently taper things and call it a day,’ but keep things basic, think volume keys, maybe a dedicated ’shuffle’ button, and get it out the door.

Regardless of implementation this is something I could see pushed by Verizon since A) they passed on the iphone the first time, and B) rumored meetings between the two companies add fuel to the fire. Why not have a dedicated media center/tablet to manage your content and contacts with and select what you put onto the device ad hoc, optional with every charge like the status quo? Because Verizon would want ca$h for media downloads, even on a separate networked device because they are smart enough to know where the money is.

Then again they sunk tons of money into their failed downloading infrastructure offering people the ability to download songs limited to one device for 5 times the going rate. What sucks is that for a while this worked without fail. Even with limited adoption and usage it was still a cash cow to a certain extent and they don’t want to see that model erased yet can’t realistically plan on it growing. BTW I have no idea their ROI in regards to building that into their UI but I assume the margins were there in terms of the .mp3 costs.
Okay, this sets a record at my longest post ever. Thanks for Gizmodo for all the various postings, 1/2 of the images in this post (others from numerous other sources), ongoing coverage, and of course the liveblogging. Guess we will have to wait out the morning of live blogging to see how close I came by covering all concievable bases that made sense to me. Either way it’s a good time to buy their stock ($144.67 now) because if it bumps up in the short term then things will be consistent with their last few launches at these conferences. If not then it’s historically a great long term play (Jan ‘09= $83.61) as well. Cheers!